A Warning to Keir Starmer drawn from His Own Past: If You're Not Bold regarding Britain's EU Exit and Europe, Your Party Challengers Might Be.

Seven years ago, a mere a short phrase to ignite the party's annual gathering and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely stirring rhetoric, the phrase met with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, stood at the podium, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

During that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script like this was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise leave supporters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues

Since then, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if survey data suggests many of them have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a party leader. And, if Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was tightly sealed since Brexit is starting to loosen once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation caused by Brexit has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick with which to beat Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, dwarfs the minor adjustments so far offered by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week voted for an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal involves announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Scepticism

However, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led UK negotiators that former EU partners are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It includes a single mention to Britain, placed beside a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from concluding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost of 2018

All of which returns us to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but simply an effort to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a group of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a future race for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her position regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Risk & A Wise Reminder

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.

It would be prudent of him to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him in 2018. There are options for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, before someone else adopt them as their own.